Greek Public Debt: How Much, to Whom, and Can Greece Repay It?

What is this?

Greece went through one of the deepest debt crises of any modern European economy. More than fifteen years after the first bailout, this story answers four questions with official data:

  1. Does Greece owe more now than in 2010?
  2. Whom does it owe?
  3. How much is that compared with the size of the economy, and with the rest of the EU?
  4. Will Greece be able to repay?

The data come from three places:

  • Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU: the debt, the deficit, the interest, who holds the debt and when it falls due. They are downloaded when the page is rendered, so a new render brings in the latest figures.
  • The World Bank: interest payments as a share of the government’s revenue, back to 1972.
  • The Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) of Greece: who the creditors are, from its Annual Debt Bulletin 2025. The bulletin is a PDF, so its figures are typed in below, with the page they come from.

It follows two other stories of this site: Greece Since 2000 goes through the boom, the crisis and the recovery of the economy, and Same Crisis, Different Endings compares Greece with the other countries of the euro crisis; this one follows the debt.

Two measures of the same debt. Eurostat and the EU count the debt of the whole general government (the State, public bodies, local government and the pension funds) and leave out what one public body owes another: that is the figure of the EU rules, and of the headlines. The PDMA also reports the debt of the State alone, which includes the short-term loans that other public bodies make to the State with their spare cash. At the end of 2025 the first was €362.9 billion, the second €406.2 billion. This story uses the first, except where it names the creditors of the State.

Packages

Code 
# install.packages(c("eurostat", "plotly", "jsonlite"))
library(eurostat)
library(plotly)

The data

Code 
# a Eurostat dataset, without its missing values
eurostat_values <- function(id, filters) {
  x <- get_eurostat(id, filters = filters, time_format = "num", cache = FALSE)
  as.data.frame(x[!is.na(x$values), ])
}

# debt, deficit and interest of the general government of Greece
edp <- eurostat_values("gov_10dd_edpt1", list(
  geo = "EL", sector = "S13",
  na_item = c("GD", "GD_F3", "GD_F4", "B9", "D41PAY"),
  unit = c("MIO_EUR", "PC_GDP")
))
# gross domestic product at current prices, million euros
gdp <- eurostat_values("nama_10_gdp", list(geo = "EL", na_item = "B1GQ", unit = "CP_MEUR"))

# one series of the deficit and debt data, by year
series <- function(item, unit, years) {
  s <- edp[edp$na_item == item & edp$unit == unit, ]
  s$values[match(years, s$time)]
}
years <- sort(unique(edp$time[edp$na_item == "GD"]))
greece <- data.frame(
  year = years,
  debt_bn = series("GD", "MIO_EUR", years) / 1000,          # debt, billion euros
  debt_gdp = series("GD", "PC_GDP", years),                 # debt, % of GDP
  bonds_bn = series("GD_F3", "MIO_EUR", years) / 1000,      # of which bonds and bills
  loans_bn = series("GD_F4", "MIO_EUR", years) / 1000,      # of which loans
  balance_gdp = series("B9", "PC_GDP", years),              # surplus (+) or deficit (-), % of GDP
  interest_gdp = series("D41PAY", "PC_GDP", years),         # interest, % of GDP
  interest_bn = series("D41PAY", "MIO_EUR", years) / 1000,
  gdp_bn = gdp$values[match(years, gdp$time)] / 1000
)
# the balance before interest: what the State collects minus what it spends on everything else
greece$primary_gdp <- greece$balance_gdp + greece$interest_gdp
last <- max(greece$year)
at <- function(column, year) greece[[column]][greece$year == year]

# who holds the debt (from 2020), and when it falls due
holders <- eurostat_values("gov_10dd_ggd", list(geo = "EL", sector = "S13", na_item = "GD", maturity = "TOTAL", unit = "MIO_EUR"))
due <- eurostat_values("gov_10dd_rmd", list(geo = "EL", sector = "S13", na_item = "GD"))

# debt of every EU country, % of GDP, and the countries with the most
eu <- eurostat_values("gov_10dd_edpt1", list(sector = "S13", na_item = "GD", unit = "PC_GDP"))
eu_name <- c(setNames(eu_countries$name, eu_countries$code), EU27_2020 = "EU-27")
most <- eu[eu$time == last & eu$geo %in% eu_countries$code, ]
most <- most[order(-most$values), ]

# the average years to repayment of the debt of every EU country, the longest first
maturities <- eurostat_values("gov_10dd_rmd", list(sector = "S13", na_item = "GD", maturity = "TOTAL", unit = "YR"))
maturities <- maturities[maturities$time == max(maturities$time) & maturities$geo %in% eu_countries$code, ]
maturities <- maturities[order(-maturities$values), ]

# World Bank: interest payments, % of revenue
world_bank <- jsonlite::fromJSON("https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/GRC/indicator/GC.XPN.INTP.RV.ZS?format=json&per_page=100")[[2]]
interest_revenue <- data.frame(year = as.integer(world_bank$date), value = world_bank$value)
interest_revenue <- interest_revenue[!is.na(interest_revenue$value), ]
interest_revenue <- interest_revenue[order(interest_revenue$year), ]
Code 
greek_red <- "#d62728"
gray <- "#9e9e9e"
blue <- "#1f77b4"

# the source of a chart, as a note under it, and the common layout
chart <- function(p, title, source, y_title = "", annotations = list(), margin = list(t = 70, b = 90), note_y = -0.16, ...) {
  note <- list(
    text = paste("Source:", source), xref = "paper", yref = "paper", x = 0, y = note_y,
    xanchor = "left", yanchor = "top", showarrow = FALSE, font = list(size = 11, color = gray)
  )
  layout(p,
    title = list(text = title, x = 0.02, xanchor = "left"),
    yaxis = list(title = y_title),
    xaxis = list(title = ""),
    margin = margin,
    annotations = c(annotations, list(note)),
    ...
  ) %>% config(displaylogo = FALSE)
}
# a short label of an amount
billion <- function(x) paste0("€", format(round(x), big.mark = ","), " bn")

1. Does Greece owe more now than in 2010?

In euros, yes. As a share of the economy, slightly less — and far less than at the peak.

At the end of 2010 the Greek state owed €331 bn; at the end of 2025 it owed €363 bn, that is €32 bn more. The debt fell only once, in 2012, when private holders of Greek bonds took a loss in the restructuring known as the PSI: between 2011 and 2012 the debt went down by €51 bn, although new bailout loans came in at the same time.

Code 
highlight <- ifelse(greece$year %in% c(2010, last), greek_red, gray)
plot_ly(greece,
  x = ~year, y = ~debt_bn, type = "bar", marker = list(color = highlight),
  hovertemplate = "%{x}: €%{y:.1f} billion<extra></extra>"
) %>%
  chart(
    "Greek government debt, billion euros", "Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1", "Billion euros",
    annotations = list(list(
      x = 2012, y = at("debt_bn", 2012), text = "2012: bondholders' haircut (PSI)",
      showarrow = TRUE, ax = 0, ay = -60
    ))
  )

What matters for paying a debt is the size of the economy that carries it. As a share of the gross domestic product (GDP), the debt was 147.8% in 2010 and 145.4% in 2025: about the same. In between it rose to 209.4% in 2020, when the pandemic made the economy shrink, and it has fallen by 64 points since.

Code 
plot_ly(greece,
  x = ~year, y = ~debt_gdp, type = "scatter", mode = "lines+markers",
  line = list(color = greek_red, width = 3), marker = list(color = greek_red),
  hovertemplate = "%{x}: %{y:.1f}% of GDP<extra></extra>"
) %>%
  add_lines(x = range(greece$year), y = c(60, 60), line = list(color = gray, dash = "dash"), hoverinfo = "skip", inherit = FALSE) %>%
  chart(
    "Greek government debt, % of GDP", "Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1", "% of GDP",
    showlegend = FALSE,
    annotations = list(
      list(x = greece$year[1], y = 60, text = "60%: the limit of the EU rules", showarrow = FALSE, xanchor = "left", yanchor = "bottom", font = list(color = gray)),
      list(x = greece$year[which.max(greece$debt_gdp)], y = max(greece$debt_gdp), text = "Pandemic", showarrow = TRUE, ax = -50, ay = -30)
    )
  )

2. Whom does Greece owe?

Mostly the rest of the euro area, through the rescue funds of the bailouts. In 2010, 79% of the debt was bonds sold to investors; in 2025, 71% is loans. The bailouts replaced most of the bonds with long, cheap loans from the euro area and, until 2022, the IMF.

Code 
plot_ly(greece, x = ~year, y = ~bonds_bn, type = "scatter", mode = "lines", name = "Bonds and bills",
  line = list(color = gray, width = 3), hovertemplate = "%{x}: €%{y:.1f} billion in bonds<extra></extra>"
) %>%
  add_trace(y = ~loans_bn, name = "Loans", line = list(color = greek_red, width = 3),
    hovertemplate = "%{x}: €%{y:.1f} billion in loans<extra></extra>") %>%
  chart("From bonds to loans: the debt by instrument, billion euros", "Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1", "Billion euros",
    legend = list(orientation = "h", x = 0, y = 1.02, yanchor = "bottom"))

The PDMA names the creditors of the State. At the end of 2025:

Code 
# PDMA, Annual Debt Bulletin 2025 (June 2026), debt of the State at 31.12.2025, million euros (pages 13-14).
# The bulletin gives 211,421 for the loans of the EFSF, the ESM and the GLF together, and says
# that the EFSF and the ESM hold 45.58% of the debt; the GLF is the difference.
total <- 406181
creditors <- data.frame(
  creditor = c(
    "EFSF and ESM: the euro area rescue funds",
    "Bonds held by investors and the Bank of Greece",
    "Repos: short-term loans, mostly from public bodies",
    "GLF: bilateral loans of euro area countries",
    "Other EU and international loans (RRF, SURE, EIB)",
    "Treasury bills"
  ),
  million = c(round(0.4558 * total), 100759, 62852, 211421 - round(0.4558 * total), 23057, 7969)
)
creditors$share <- 100 * creditors$million / total
creditors <- creditors[order(creditors$million), ]
creditors$creditor <- factor(creditors$creditor, levels = creditors$creditor)

plot_ly(creditors,
  x = ~ million / 1000, y = ~creditor, type = "bar", orientation = "h",
  marker = list(color = c(rep(gray, nrow(creditors) - 1), greek_red)),
  text = ~ paste0(round(share, 1), "%"), textposition = "outside", cliponaxis = FALSE,
  hovertemplate = "%{y}: €%{x:.1f} billion<extra></extra>"
) %>%
  chart("Who lends to the Greek State, end of 2025, billion euros",
    "PDMA, Annual Debt Bulletin 2025; the GLF as calculated in the code above",
    margin = list(l = 330, r = 60, t = 70, b = 90))
  • The EFSF and the ESM, the rescue funds of the euro area, hold almost half of the debt of the State. Their loans are repaid over decades: those of the EFSF from 2023 to 2070, those of the ESM from 2034 to 2060 (ESM).
  • The GLF loans of the first bailout come from the other euro area countries. Their interest rate floats, so Greece is paying them back early: €5.3 billion in 2025.
  • The IMF was repaid in full in 2022.
  • The repos are mostly the cash of other public bodies, lent to the State for a few days or weeks; the EU measure of the debt leaves them out.

Eurostat’s view of the same debt, by who holds it rather than by instrument:

Code 
groups <- c(
  S2 = "Abroad (the rescue funds, foreign investors)",
  S121 = "Bank of Greece",
  S122_S123 = "Greek banks",
  `S124-S129` = "Other Greek financial companies",
  S11 = "Greek companies",
  S14_S15 = "Greek households"
)
latest_holders <- holders[holders$time == max(holders$time), ]
held <- data.frame(holder = groups, million = latest_holders$values[match(names(groups), latest_holders$sector2)])
held$million[is.na(held$million)] <- 0
held$share <- 100 * held$million / latest_holders$values[latest_holders$sector2 == "S1_S2"]
held <- held[order(held$share), ]
held$holder <- factor(held$holder, levels = held$holder)

plot_ly(held,
  x = ~share, y = ~holder, type = "bar", orientation = "h",
  marker = list(color = ifelse(held$holder == groups[["S2"]], greek_red, gray)),
  text = ~ paste0(round(share), "%"), textposition = "outside", cliponaxis = FALSE,
  hovertemplate = "%{y}: %{x:.1f}% of the debt<extra></extra>"
) %>%
  chart(paste0("Who holds the Greek government debt, ", max(holders$time), ", % of the debt"),
    "Eurostat, gov_10dd_ggd", margin = list(l = 300, t = 70, b = 90))

3. How much is it, compared with the economy and with the EU?

At 145.4% of GDP, Greece still has the highest debt in the EU, 8.7 points above Italy.

Code 
eu_latest <- eu[eu$time == last & eu$geo %in% c(eu_countries$code, "EU27_2020"), ]
eu_latest$name <- eu_name[eu_latest$geo]
eu_latest <- eu_latest[order(eu_latest$values), ]
eu_latest$name <- factor(eu_latest$name, levels = eu_latest$name)

plot_ly(eu_latest,
  x = ~values, y = ~name, type = "bar", orientation = "h",
  marker = list(color = ifelse(eu_latest$geo == "EL", greek_red, ifelse(eu_latest$geo == "EU27_2020", blue, gray))),
  hovertemplate = "%{y}: %{x:.1f}% of GDP<extra></extra>"
) %>%
  chart(paste0("Government debt in the EU, ", last, ", % of GDP"), "Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1",
    margin = list(l = 130, t = 70, b = 90))

4. Will Greece be able to repay?

Countries rarely pay their debt off; they repay old loans with new ones. The question is whether the debt stays affordable — whether the interest leaves enough for everything else — and whether it keeps shrinking against the economy. On both, the numbers now look good, for four reasons.

Interest takes far less of the budget

In 2011 interest cost Greece 7.7% of GDP; in 2025, 3.1%. The World Bank’s series shows the same from the side of the budget: interest took 17.8% of the government’s revenue in 2011, and 7.5% in 2024.

Code 
subplot(
  plot_ly(greece, x = ~year, y = ~interest_gdp, type = "scatter", mode = "lines", line = list(color = greek_red, width = 3),
    name = "% of GDP (Eurostat)", hovertemplate = "%{x}: %{y:.1f}% of GDP<extra></extra>"),
  plot_ly(interest_revenue, x = ~year, y = ~value, type = "scatter", mode = "lines", line = list(color = blue, width = 3),
    name = "% of revenue (World Bank)", hovertemplate = "%{x}: %{y:.1f}% of revenue<extra></extra>"),
  nrows = 2, shareX = TRUE, titleY = TRUE
) %>%
  chart("Interest paid by the Greek government", "Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1; World Bank, GC.XPN.INTP.RV.ZS",
    "% of GDP", yaxis2 = list(title = "% of revenue"),
    legend = list(orientation = "h", x = 0, y = 1.02, yanchor = "bottom"))

The debt is long, fixed and in euros

Code 
years_left <- due[due$unit == "YR" & due$maturity == "TOTAL", ]
buckets <- c(Y_LE1 = "Up to 1 year", `Y1-5` = "1 to 5 years", `Y5-10` = "5 to 10 years", `Y10-30` = "10 to 30 years", Y_GT30 = "Over 30 years")
falling_due <- due[due$unit == "MIO_EUR" & due$time == max(due$time) & due$maturity %in% names(buckets), ]
falling_due$label <- factor(buckets[falling_due$maturity], levels = buckets)
falling_due$share <- 100 * falling_due$values / sum(falling_due$values)

plot_ly(falling_due,
  x = ~label, y = ~share, type = "bar", marker = list(color = greek_red),
  text = ~ paste0(round(share), "%"), textposition = "outside", cliponaxis = FALSE,
  hovertemplate = "%{x}: %{y:.1f}% of the debt<extra></extra>"
) %>%
  chart(paste0("When the debt falls due, ", max(due$time), ", % of the debt"), "Eurostat, gov_10dd_rmd", "% of the debt")
  • On average the debt falls due in 18.4 years (Eurostat), the longest in the EU: next comes Austria, with 11.3 years.
  • After interest rate swaps, none of it has a floating rate and none is in a foreign currency (PDMA): higher interest rates reach only the debt that is renewed, a little each year.
  • In 2025 the State needed €17.6 billion to repay maturing debt and cover its budget, about 7% of GDP, and borrowed it at 2.89% for 14.6 years on average (PDMA). When the euro area eased the terms of its loans in 2018, it set out to keep these needs below 15% of GDP in the medium term and below 20% after that (Eurogroup, June 2018).
  • The State keeps a cash reserve: the general government held €39.6 billion in cash at the end of 2025, so its debt minus its cash was €323 billion (PDMA).

Why the ratio fell so fast

The change of the debt ratio each year adds up from four parts:

  • Interest adds to the debt.
  • The primary balance (the budget before interest) adds a deficit or takes away a surplus.
  • Growth of the economy in euros — real growth plus inflation — shrinks the ratio, as the same debt is divided by a bigger GDP.
  • Other changes: debt that changes without a deficit, such as the PSI haircut of 2012 or the cash the State borrows ahead and keeps.
Code 
d <- greece[greece$year >= 2010 & !is.na(greece$gdp_bn), ]
n <- nrow(d)
ratio <- 100 * d$debt_bn / d$gdp_bn
growth <- d$gdp_bn[-1] / d$gdp_bn[-n] - 1
parts <- data.frame(
  year = d$year[-1],
  change = diff(ratio),
  interest = 100 * d$interest_bn[-1] / d$gdp_bn[-1],
  primary = -d$primary_gdp[-1],
  growth = -ratio[-n] * growth / (1 + growth)
)
parts$other <- parts$change - parts$interest - parts$primary - parts$growth

plot_ly(parts, x = ~year, y = ~interest, type = "bar", name = "Interest", marker = list(color = greek_red)) %>%
  add_trace(y = ~primary, name = "Primary deficit (+) or surplus (-)", marker = list(color = "#ff9896")) %>%
  add_trace(y = ~growth, name = "Growth of GDP in euros", marker = list(color = blue)) %>%
  add_trace(y = ~other, name = "Other", marker = list(color = gray)) %>%
  add_trace(y = ~change, type = "scatter", mode = "markers", name = "Change of the debt ratio",
    marker = list(color = "black", size = 10, symbol = "diamond")) %>%
  chart("What changed the debt ratio each year, points of GDP", "Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1 and nama_10_gdp; own calculation",
    "Points of GDP", barmode = "relative", note_y = -0.34, margin = list(t = 70, b = 160),
    # under the chart, as its five entries take two lines
    legend = list(orientation = "h", x = 0, y = -0.1, yanchor = "top"))

From 2021 the economy grew fast in euros — partly real growth, partly inflation — while the interest rate on the debt stayed low: growth alone took 71 points off the ratio between 2021 and 2025. The budget before interest was in deficit in the pandemic and then turned to surplus: from 2023, the surpluses took 12 points more.

Where it could go: three scenarios

The debt ratio of next year is this year’s, grown by the interest rate and shrunk by the growth of GDP in euros, minus the primary surplus:

\[d_{t} = d_{t-1} \times \frac{1 + i_t}{1 + g_t} - pb_t\]

The scenarios below start from the 2025 debt and its average interest rate of 2.1%, which climbs over ten years as cheap loans are replaced by new borrowing at market rates. They are illustrations of what drives the debt, not forecasts.

Code 
start_rate <- at("interest_bn", last) / at("debt_bn", last - 1)
assumptions <- data.frame(
  scenario = c("Strong", "Steady", "Weak"),
  growth = c(0.050, 0.040, 0.025),    # growth of GDP in euros, a year
  rate_to = c(0.025, 0.030, 0.040),   # average interest rate on the debt after ten years
  primary = c(3.5, 2.5, 1.0)          # primary surplus, % of GDP
)
project <- function(growth, rate_to, primary, years = (last + 1):2040) {
  debt <- at("debt_gdp", last)
  path <- numeric(length(years))
  for (k in seq_along(years)) {
    rate <- start_rate + (rate_to - start_rate) * min(1, k / 10)
    debt <- debt * (1 + rate) / (1 + growth) - primary
    path[k] <- debt
  }
  data.frame(year = c(last, years), debt_gdp = c(at("debt_gdp", last), path))
}
paths <- do.call(rbind, lapply(seq_len(nrow(assumptions)), function(k) {
  cbind(scenario = assumptions$scenario[k], project(assumptions$growth[k], assumptions$rate_to[k], assumptions$primary[k]))
}))
in_2040 <- setNames(paths$debt_gdp[paths$year == 2040], paths$scenario[paths$year == 2040])

knitr::kable(transform(assumptions,
  growth = paste0(100 * growth, "%"), rate_to = paste0(100 * rate_to, "%"), primary = paste0(primary, "% of GDP"),
  debt_2040 = paste0(round(in_2040[scenario]), "% of GDP")
), col.names = c("Scenario", "GDP growth in euros, a year", "Interest rate after ten years", "Primary surplus", "Debt in 2040"))
Scenario GDP growth in euros, a year Interest rate after ten years Primary surplus Debt in 2040
Strong 5% 2.5% 3.5% of GDP 55% of GDP
Steady 4% 3% 2.5% of GDP 86% of GDP
Weak 2.5% 4% 1% of GDP 150% of GDP
Code 
plot_ly(greece, x = ~year, y = ~debt_gdp, type = "scatter", mode = "lines", name = "Actual",
  line = list(color = "black", width = 3), hovertemplate = "%{x}: %{y:.1f}% of GDP<extra></extra>"
) %>%
  add_trace(data = paths[paths$scenario == "Strong", ], name = "Strong", line = list(color = blue, dash = "dot")) %>%
  add_trace(data = paths[paths$scenario == "Steady", ], name = "Steady", line = list(color = greek_red, dash = "dot")) %>%
  add_trace(data = paths[paths$scenario == "Weak", ], name = "Weak", line = list(color = gray, dash = "dot")) %>%
  chart("Greek government debt to 2040: three scenarios, % of GDP", "Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1; own scenarios", "% of GDP",
    legend = list(orientation = "h", x = 0, y = 1.02, yanchor = "bottom"))

In the steady scenario the debt falls to about 86% of GDP by 2040. In the weak one it ends near 150%, a little above today’s level: with long, fixed and cheap loans, a bad decade would stop the fall rather than send the debt back to the heights of 2020.

So, will Greece repay?

On today’s numbers, yes: the debt is large, but it is cheap, it falls due slowly, and it is shrinking against the economy. The markets agree: Greece is back in the investment grade (Moody’s raised it to Baa3 in March 2025), and at the end of 2025 its ten-year bonds paid only 0.59 percentage points more than Germany’s (PDMA).

What could still go wrong:

  • A recession, or years of slow growth: growth did most of the work since 2021.
  • Higher interest rates on the debt that is renewed each year, and more of it once the cheap rescue loans start falling due in the 2030s.
  • Smaller surpluses: the scenarios need primary surpluses for many years, which is a political choice, not only an economic one.
  • An ageing population, which raises the cost of pensions and health care.

Sources